Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
26 Memphis 67.4%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +12.5      +7.6 17 +4.9 46 84.8 4 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 Cincinnati 66.0%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +12.3      +5.1 50 +7.2 22 61.3 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 Houston 63.8%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +12.0      +4.7 58 +7.3 19 66.6 239 0.0 1 0.0 1
58 Wichita St. 43.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +9.1      +3.6 78 +5.5 39 69.5 156 0.0 1 0.0 1
73 Connecticut 26.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +7.3      +4.4 66 +2.8 92 71.4 105 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 South Florida 24.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +6.7      +1.9 116 +4.8 51 68.2 193 0.0 1 0.0 1
83 Temple 22.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +6.4      +3.4 83 +2.9 91 70.9 123 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 SMU 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +5.3      +3.0 89 +2.4 107 63.4 318 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Central Florida 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +4.5      +0.4 164 +4.2 64 64.0 305 0.0 1 0.0 1
100 Tulsa 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +4.3      +1.7 122 +2.6 100 70.4 133 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 East Carolina 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 13 -2.6      -1.2 215 -1.4 207 70.5 128 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 Tulane 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 4 - 14 -4.6      -2.3 247 -2.3 241 73.2 75 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Memphis 3.4 27.9 18.7 13.8 11.0 9.1 6.4 5.1 3.4 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2
Cincinnati 3.4 27.6 19.1 14.0 10.6 8.4 6.8 4.7 3.8 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.1
Houston 3.7 24.5 17.2 14.0 10.9 9.0 7.5 6.0 4.3 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.2
Wichita St. 5.2 11.0 11.4 11.8 11.6 10.3 10.3 9.4 8.1 7.0 5.5 2.7 0.9
Connecticut 5.8 7.6 9.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 9.4 8.8 7.6 4.3 1.7
South Florida 6.0 6.7 8.6 9.3 9.8 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.3 9.1 7.7 5.1 1.8
Temple 5.8 6.7 9.7 10.3 10.5 11.0 10.7 10.3 9.2 8.4 7.1 4.2 1.8
SMU 6.4 4.8 6.7 8.3 9.7 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.0 10.1 9.1 5.9 2.8
Central Florida 6.7 3.8 5.9 7.4 8.6 10.0 10.1 10.9 11.9 11.4 9.9 6.8 3.5
Tulsa 6.9 3.3 5.5 6.7 8.2 9.3 10.6 11.4 11.7 11.4 10.7 7.6 3.5
East Carolina 9.9 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.5 5.0 7.4 10.4 16.3 26.5 25.8
Tulane 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.4 5.2 7.7 13.6 25.2 40.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.9 6.7 9.2 11.6 12.3 12.8 12.5 10.4 7.7 4.2 1.4
Cincinnati 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.9 6.8 9.0 10.4 13.0 13.0 12.2 10.6 7.8 4.1 1.4
Houston 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.7 5.8 7.9 9.8 11.6 12.3 12.1 11.5 9.1 6.5 3.5 1.2
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.1 5.7 8.1 9.6 10.7 11.9 11.7 11.0 8.8 6.4 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.3
Connecticut 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 0.7 2.0 3.4 5.5 7.8 9.2 10.9 11.5 11.7 10.6 8.9 7.4 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1
South Florida 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.6 5.7 8.1 9.9 11.2 11.6 11.6 10.3 8.6 6.5 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1
Temple 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.1 7.2 8.9 10.8 11.8 12.2 10.8 9.2 7.6 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1
SMU 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.5 6.5 9.0 11.1 11.6 11.9 11.1 9.9 7.7 5.5 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.1
Central Florida 8 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.3 5.2 7.3 10.0 11.7 11.8 11.6 10.7 9.0 6.6 4.9 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.7 5.8 7.8 9.6 12.0 12.7 11.8 10.1 8.5 6.0 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 3.2 8.1 12.5 15.4 14.2 13.3 10.8 8.1 5.9 3.9 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 4 - 14 6.8 13.1 17.1 16.8 14.0 11.0 7.9 5.8 3.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 27.9% 19.4 6.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 27.6% 19.1 6.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 24.5% 16.6 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 11.0% 6.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Connecticut 7.6% 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Florida 6.7% 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Temple 6.7% 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 4.8% 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 3.8% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 3.3% 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 67.4% 21.4% 46.0% 9   3.1 4.5 4.5 5.9 5.7 5.6 6.2 6.8 6.9 8.1 7.3 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 32.6 58.5%
Cincinnati 66.0% 20.7% 45.3% 10   2.9 4.8 5.0 6.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.6 7.3 7.7 2.8 0.1 0.0 34.0 57.1%
Houston 63.8% 20.1% 43.8% 10   2.7 4.2 4.5 5.5 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.7 6.9 7.5 7.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 36.2 54.8%
Wichita St. 43.2% 10.3% 32.9% 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.8 4.3 5.9 6.4 7.6 3.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 56.8 36.7%
Connecticut 26.1% 6.6% 19.5% 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.0 6.1 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.9 20.9%
South Florida 24.5% 5.8% 18.7% 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.8 5.6 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 75.5 19.9%
Temple 22.8% 5.1% 17.7% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.5 5.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 77.2 18.6%
SMU 14.0% 3.8% 10.1% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 86.0 10.5%
Central Florida 11.9% 3.0% 9.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.8 3.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 88.1 9.2%
Tulsa 9.9% 3.0% 6.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 90.1 7.1%
East Carolina 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.2%
Tulane 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 67.4% 6.3% 64.2% 41.0% 19.2% 8.8% 4.0% 1.7% 0.8%
Cincinnati 66.0% 6.5% 62.9% 40.3% 19.0% 8.7% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6%
Houston 63.8% 7.0% 60.3% 37.9% 17.4% 7.9% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6%
Wichita St. 43.2% 6.9% 39.6% 21.4% 8.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Connecticut 26.1% 5.6% 23.3% 11.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
South Florida 24.5% 5.5% 21.7% 10.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Temple 22.8% 5.5% 19.7% 9.4% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
SMU 14.0% 3.7% 12.0% 5.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Central Florida 11.9% 3.3% 10.1% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulsa 9.9% 2.5% 8.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.5 2.2 15.6 33.2 31.6 14.0 2.9 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.2 3.7 21.4 36.7 26.8 9.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 92.5% 1.9 7.5 30.0 37.9 19.5 4.6 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 59.8% 0.8 40.2 44.0 13.8 1.8 0.2
Elite Eight 30.1% 0.3 69.9 27.0 3.0 0.1 0.0
Final Four 13.6% 0.1 86.4 13.2 0.4 0.0
Final Game 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7 0.0
Champion 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3